CICC: The CPI of the United States rose as scheduled in November, but it did not hinder the interest rate cut. CICC released a research report saying that the CPI and core CPI of the United States both rose to 0.31% in November, which was basically in line with the market and its expectations. For the post-election policies, if the immigration and tariff policies are too radical, it will bring pressure to inflation at the end of next year, which will have an impact on the market and even the mid-term elections. Therefore, before the mid-term elections, due to the "realistic constraints" of inflation, the inflation policy will be faster, but the scope may be limited, while the growth policy will be faster, and then the overall assets will still be positive. According to the difference between the natural interest rate and the real interest rate, CICC estimates that after the interest rate cut in December, there may still be two or three interest rate cuts in 2025, with the end point of interest rate cut at 3.5-3.75% and the center corresponding to long-term US debt at 3.8-4%.Syrian caretaker Prime Minister said that the current government will manage the transitional period of the country. On the 11th local time, Syrian caretaker Prime Minister Mohamed Bashir said that the current government will manage the transitional period and take over the archives of various ministries and agencies of the Assad government. He mentioned that he had met with the relevant personnel of the former government and made relevant handover, and the "Syrian National Salvation Government" would assume the responsibilities of the existing ministries and commissions.The Swiss National Bank sharply cut interest rates by 50 basis points, and the Swiss National Bank lowered the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 0.50%, which is the fourth consecutive interest rate cut. The market generally expects to cut interest rates by 25 basis points.
According to OpenAI, ChatGPT is now integrated into Apple's iOS, iPadOS and macOS, and users will be able to access ChatGPT through these systems.Standard & Poor's: It is expected that the rise of trade protectionism in major economies will damage the GDP growth of most emerging markets, but the impact will depend on specific policies. Central banks in emerging markets are expected to take a more cautious stance, but monetary easing will continue.Market participants: In 2025, the steel industry may deduce the upstream profit-making logic. At the 2025 China steel market prospect and the annual meeting of "My Steel", whether the profit space of steel enterprises can be enlarged in 2025, whether the supply-side capacity will be withdrawn in an orderly manner, and what factors should be relied on for the long-term development of enterprises have become the minds of many participants. The industry believes that the survival pressure of steel enterprises may be eased in 2025. The upstream supply of iron ore, coke and coking coal will reduce their prices, and the cost of steel enterprises will fall. The market may deduce the upstream profit-making logic. Market participants said that although steel prices are still expected to decline in 2025, the profit margin of steel enterprises may increase. (SSE)
Japanese enterprise survey: Enterprises believe that Trump's next presidential term will have a negative impact on the business environment, and 60% of Japanese enterprises expect that the trading range of USD/JPY will be between 140 and 150 by 2025. Half of Japanese companies expect higher profits in the next fiscal year.Meta's Instagram said that its service has returned to normal after the interruption. According to Downdetector.com, a network status tracking website, after thousands of users encountered technical problems when accessing the Instagram platform on Wednesday, Instagram said that its service was back online. During the peak period of failure, which started around 12:50 pm EST, Facebook reported more than 100,000 failures and Instagram reported nearly 70,000 failures. As of 6: 00 pm EST, the number of reports from these two applications has dropped to more than 1,000. Downdetector data is based on reports submitted by users. The actual number of users affected may vary.Front page of securities daily: vigorously boosting consumption is the focus of current macro policy. The front page article of securities daily points out that consumption is the ballast stone for stable economic operation. In recent years, China has issued a series of policies to promote consumption, which has brought vitality to the consumer market; The rapid development of some emerging consumption patterns has brought new growth points to the consumer market. However, we must also see that residents' consumer confidence still needs to be enhanced. Therefore, it is necessary to take multiple measures simultaneously, constantly consolidate the foundation of consumption growth, enhance residents' willingness and ability to consume, and promote the sustained recovery of the consumer market. First, increase residents' income through multiple channels and improve their spending power. Income is the primary factor that determines consumption. With income, residents have the confidence to spend. Therefore, on the one hand, it is necessary to increase residents' property income through multiple channels and enhance residents' consumption ability and willingness; On the other hand, it is necessary to increase support for key groups and enhance the overall consumption capacity. Second, further support the trade-in of consumer goods. Third, promote the upgrading and expansion of service consumption.
Strategy guide
Strategy guide 12-14
Strategy guide